TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ON THE STUDY OF BREAST CANCER IN ILORIN METROPOLIS


Breast cancer is the commonest cancer in women and characterized by regional variations which is prevalently common in low and middle income countries including Nigeria. It is now the most common disease and the second leading cause of death among women. This study assessed the reported cases of breast cancer for women in University of Ilorin Teaching Hospital, Kwara State. The data used in this research is a secondary data which was sourced from the Record and Information Department of University of Ilorin Teaching Hospital, Kwara State. The main objectives is to determine the appropriate time series model for the number of breast cancer patients in Ilorin between 2007 -2016 and to forecast for years to come. The statistical techniques used for the analysis is Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA). The result of the analysis revealed that ARMA (1,0) is the best model based on criterion considered. The model obtained is Xt = 5.85838+0.366856Xt-1 which was used to forecast for the year20


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